<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:posse="https://posseparty.com/2024/Feed"><title>Jared Knowles</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/atom+xml"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/</id><updated>2026-06-12T01:05:45Z</updated><subtitle>Data analysis, photography, and the occasional thought.</subtitle><author><name>Jared E. Knowles</name><email>jared@fastmail.us</email></author><entry><title>I am in sports watching nirvana with a…</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/takes/2026-06-11-210233/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/takes/2026-06-11-210233/</id><published>2026-06-11T21:02:33-04:00</published><updated>2026-06-11T21:02:33-04:00</updated><category term="sports"/><summary>I am in sports watching nirvana with a great NBA finals, the World Cup starting, and the Stanley Cup Finals with two teams I don’t love, but playing at an incredible pace.</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>I am in sports watching nirvana with a great NBA finals, the World Cup starting, and the Stanley Cup Finals with two teams I don&amp;#8217;t love, but playing at an incredible pace.&lt;/p>
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Hello, World</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-11-hello-world/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-11-hello-world/</id><published>2026-06-11T21:01:08-04:00</published><updated>2026-06-11T21:01:08-04:00</updated><category term="selfie"/><category term="hell"/><summary>Hello, World</summary><content type="html"></content><posse:post format="json">
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      "alt": "A man in a black leather jacket and sunglasses takes a selfie in front of a blue pond.",
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      "url": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-11-hello-world/1600w.jpg"
    }
  ],
  "og_image": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-11-hello-world/1600w.jpg"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>POSSE Party - Quit social media by posting more</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-11-145715/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-11-145715/</id><published>2026-06-11T14:57:15-04:00</published><updated>2026-06-11T14:57:15-04:00</updated><category term="self"/><category term="tech"/><summary>This is the self-hosted backend I am using to syndicate my posts across my social media accounts - it is super easy to set up and incredibly well documented.</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>This is the self-hosted backend I am using to syndicate my posts across my social media accounts - it is super easy to set up and incredibly well documented.&lt;/p>
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  "og_title": "POSSE Party - Quit social media by posting more"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>New website is live and I am so…</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/takes/2026-06-11-145611/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/takes/2026-06-11-145611/</id><published>2026-06-11T14:56:11-04:00</published><updated>2026-06-11T14:56:11-04:00</updated><category term="selfhost"/><category term="tech"/><category term="helloworld"/><summary>New website is live and I am so happy about it! Lots of work to get here, but the post once, syndicate everywhere workflow is great, and having it independently operating on my own infrastructure feels good!</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>New website is live and I am so happy about it! Lots of work to get here, but the post once, syndicate everywhere workflow is great, and having it independently operating on my own infrastructure feels good!&lt;/p>
</content><posse:post format="json">
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}
</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Cape Ann Vibes</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-11-cape-ann-vibes/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-11-cape-ann-vibes/</id><published>2026-06-11T12:39:59-04:00</published><updated>2026-06-11T12:39:59-04:00</updated><category term="newengland"/><summary>Cape Ann Vibes</summary><content type="html"></content><posse:post format="json">
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      "alt": "A seaside cottage",
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      "url": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-11-cape-ann-vibes/6891/1600w.jpg"
    },
    {
      "alt": "A view of Gloucester Harbor",
      "type": "image",
      "url": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-11-cape-ann-vibes/6907/1600w.jpg"
    },
    {
      "alt": "Architecture of old New England",
      "type": "image",
      "url": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-11-cape-ann-vibes/6919/1600w.jpg"
    }
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Fisherman's Memorial</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-10-fisherman-s-memorial/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-10-fisherman-s-memorial/</id><published>2026-06-10T19:38:31Z</published><updated>2026-06-10T19:38:31Z</updated><summary>Fisherman's Memorial</summary><content type="html"></content><posse:post format="json">
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    {
      "alt": "A statue of a man at the wheel of a fishing boat",
      "type": "image",
      "url": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-10-fisherman-s-memorial/1600w.jpg"
    }
  ],
  "og_image": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-10-fisherman-s-memorial/1600w.jpg"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>DGX Spark Series (Part 3): When the Wrong-Sized GPU Is the Right Call</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-10-135037/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-10-135037/</id><published>2026-06-10T13:50:37Z</published><updated>2026-06-10T13:50:37Z</updated><category term="ai"/><category term="computers"/><category term="hardware"/><summary>I think the folks at Lander Analytics do really interesting cutting edge work and share a generous amount of what they learn. My own experience using a MacStudio for multiple side by side models is similar, but I need to look into these time series models more!</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>I think the folks at Lander Analytics do really interesting cutting edge work and share a generous amount of what they learn. My own experience using a MacStudio for multiple side by side models is similar, but I need to look into these time series models more!&lt;/p>
</content><posse:post format="json">
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  "og_image": "https://jaredknowles.com/og/default.png",
  "og_title": "DGX Spark Series (Part 3): When the Wrong-Sized GPU Is the Right Call"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>The $25.8m Kansas City ‘World Cup jail’ that isn’t ready for the World Cup</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-09-134248/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-09-134248/</id><published>2026-06-09T13:42:48Z</published><updated>2026-06-09T13:42:48Z</updated><category term="socialjustice"/><category term="jail"/><summary>They raised taxes to pay for a temporary jail for the World Cup and it won’t be ready to open until the tournament is over. There’s always a jail angle.</summary><content type="html"><![CDATA[<p>They raised taxes to pay for a temporary jail for the World Cup and it won&#8217;t be ready to open until the tournament is over. There&#8217;s always a jail angle.</p>
]]></content><posse:post format="json">
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  "og_title": "The $25.8m Kansas City ‘World Cup jail’ that isn’t ready for the World Cup"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Welcome! - Carl J Bryan EdD</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-08-204631/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-08-204631/</id><published>2026-06-08T20:46:31Z</published><updated>2026-06-08T20:46:31Z</updated><summary>My former colleague at the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction, Dr. Carl Bryan, has launched a newsletter and the list of topics sound like everything I love: • Democracy and democratic participation • Education policy and public schools • School boards and local governance • Critical theory and public life • Queer liberation and belonging • Humanization, resistance, and public institutions • Current events viewed through questions of power and participation</summary><content type="html"><![CDATA[<p>My former colleague at the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction, Dr. Carl Bryan, has launched a newsletter and the list of topics sound like everything I love:</p>
<p>• Democracy and democratic participation
• Education policy and public schools
• School boards and local governance
• Critical theory and public life
• Queer liberation and belonging
• Humanization, resistance, and public institutions
• Current events viewed through questions of power and participation</p>
<p>Can&#8217;t wait to follow along</p>
]]></content><posse:post format="json">
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  "og_image": "https://jaredknowles.com/og/default.png",
  "og_title": "Welcome! - Carl J Bryan EdD"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Blooming June</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-08-blooming-june/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-08-blooming-june/</id><published>2026-06-08T00:54:28Z</published><updated>2026-06-08T00:54:28Z</updated><summary>Blooming June</summary><content type="html"></content><posse:post format="json">
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  "media": [
    {
      "alt": "A red flower blooms bright.",
      "type": "image",
      "url": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-08-blooming-june/1600w.jpg"
    }
  ],
  "og_image": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-08-blooming-june/1600w.jpg"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Beautiful Gloucester architecture</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-07-beautiful-gloucester-architecture/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-07-beautiful-gloucester-architecture/</id><published>2026-06-07T13:33:02Z</published><updated>2026-06-07T13:33:02Z</updated><summary>Beautiful Gloucester architecture</summary><content type="html"></content><posse:post format="json">
{
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  "media": [
    {
      "alt": "A multi story sea green home stands on a seaside village street",
      "type": "image",
      "url": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-07-beautiful-gloucester-architecture/1600w.jpg"
    }
  ],
  "og_image": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-07-beautiful-gloucester-architecture/1600w.jpg"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>‘An equal and habitable world is possible’: academics set out sweeping vision for planetary survival</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-04-172054/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-04-172054/</id><published>2026-06-04T17:20:54Z</published><updated>2026-06-04T17:20:54Z</updated><category term="socialscience"/><category term="models"/><category term="climate"/><category term="socialjustice"/><summary>This interests me for three reasons: 1) it is the kind of ambitious policy vision we need to see; 2) it models its assumptions and clearly explains them; 3) there are no notable US politicians speaking at the World Inequality Conference. We need leaders who are relevant voices in exactly these conversations.</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>This interests me for three reasons: 1) it is the kind of ambitious policy vision we need to see; 2) it models its assumptions and clearly explains them; 3) there are no notable US politicians speaking at the World Inequality Conference. We need leaders who are relevant voices in exactly these conversations.&lt;/p>
</content><posse:post format="json">
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  "og_description": "This interests me for three reasons: 1) it is the kind of ambitious policy vision we need to see; 2) it models its assumptions and clearly explains them; 3) there are no notable US politicians speaking at the World Inequality Conference. We need leaders who are relevant voices in exactly these conversations.",
  "og_image": "https://jaredknowles.com/og/default.png",
  "og_title": "‘An equal and habitable world is possible’: academics set out sweeping vision for planetary survival"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Much of my early career was peering into…</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/takes/2026-06-04-134909/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/takes/2026-06-04-134909/</id><published>2026-06-04T13:49:09Z</published><updated>2026-06-04T13:49:09Z</updated><category term="socialscience"/><category term="ai"/><summary>Much of my early career was peering into black boxes: using open source statistical software, demystifying ML models, communicating causal inference in plain language. With AI I am building AI-assisted tools that do the same. Openness and trust - these are still core to my work.</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>Much of my early career was peering into black boxes: using open source statistical software, demystifying ML models, communicating causal inference in plain language. With AI I am building AI-assisted tools that do the same. Openness and trust - these are still core to my work.&lt;/p>
</content><posse:post format="json">
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  "format_string": "{{content}}",
  "og_description": "Much of my early career was peering into black boxes: using open source statistical software, demystifying ML models, communicating causal inference in plain language. With AI I am building AI-assisted tools that do the same. Openness and trust - these are still core to my work."
}
</posse:post></entry><entry><title>GitHub - companion-inc/feynman</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-04-004527/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-04-004527/</id><published>2026-06-04T00:45:27Z</published><updated>2026-06-04T00:45:27Z</updated><category term="ai"/><category term="socialscience"/><summary>An AI harness for research. I have not tried it out because it seems far too optimized on writing papers which is not my primary output anymore.</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>An AI harness for research. I have not tried it out because it seems far too optimized on writing papers which is not my primary output anymore.&lt;/p>
</content><posse:post format="json">
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  "attach_link": true,
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  "og_description": "An AI harness for research. I have not tried it out because it seems far too optimized on writing papers which is not my primary output anymore.",
  "og_image": "https://jaredknowles.com/og/default.png",
  "og_title": "GitHub - companion-inc/feynman"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>An acorn stands alone</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-04-an-acorn-stands-alone/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/shots/2026-06-04-an-acorn-stands-alone/</id><published>2026-06-04T00:08:05Z</published><updated>2026-06-04T00:08:05Z</updated><category term="macro"/><category term="plants"/><summary>An acorn stands alone</summary><content type="html"></content><posse:post format="json">
{
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  "media": [
    {
      "alt": "A single acorn close up on the ground with a small round hole in it.",
      "type": "image",
      "url": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-04-an-acorn-stands-alone/1600w.jpg"
    }
  ],
  "og_image": "https://media.jaredknowles.com/photos/2026-06-04-an-acorn-stands-alone/1600w.jpg"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Coding agents in the social sciences</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-04-000305/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-04-000305/</id><published>2026-06-04T00:03:05Z</published><updated>2026-06-04T00:03:05Z</updated><category term="ai"/><category term="socialscience"/><summary>I’m not surprised by the finding that even among AI users, code harnesses are not used. But if you are not finding value from AI for writing quantitative analysis code and research communication outputs its probably because you aren’t using a coding harness like OpenCode or Claude Code.</summary><content type="html"><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not surprised by the finding that even among AI users, code harnesses are not used. But if you are not finding value from AI for writing quantitative analysis code and research communication outputs its probably because you aren&#8217;t using a coding harness like OpenCode or Claude Code.</p>
]]></content><posse:post format="json">
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  "format_string": "{{content}}",
  "og_description": "I’m not surprised by the finding that even among AI users, code harnesses are not used. But if you are not finding value from AI for writing quantitative analysis code and research communication outputs its probably because you aren’t using a coding harness like OpenCode or Claude Code.",
  "og_image": "https://jaredknowles.com/og/default.png",
  "og_title": "Coding agents in the social sciences"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>CRDC School Arrest Rates — Bayesian Estimates</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/data/crdc-school-arrest-rates/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/data/crdc-school-arrest-rates/</id><published>2026-06-02T00:00:00Z</published><updated>2026-06-02T00:00:00Z</updated><category term="education"/><category term="civil-rights"/><category term="school-discipline"/><category term="bayesian"/><category term="crdc"/><summary>Model-based estimates of school-based arrest rates for U.S. school districts and states, by race and sex, derived from the Civil Rights Data Collection.</summary><content type="html"><![CDATA[<p>School-based arrests are one of the sharpest edges of school discipline data, and
they are also some of the sparsest. Most district-by-race-by-sex cells in the
Civil Rights Data Collection contain very small counts, where a raw rate of &#8220;2
arrests out of 41 students&#8221; is too noisy to compare against a district ten times
its size. This dataset addresses that by replacing raw rates with <strong>Bayesian
hierarchical estimates</strong> that partially pool across districts: small or noisy
cells are pulled toward the broader pattern, and every estimate carries an
explicit credible interval instead of a false-precision point.</p>
<p>The release covers <strong>eight demographic cells</strong> — race ∈ {AM, BL, HI, WH} crossed
with sex ∈ {F, M} — across three CRDC collection years (2015–16, 2017–18, and
2021–22), for U.S. school districts (LEAs) and states.</p>
<h2 id="whats-in-the-release">
  <span class="heading-mark">What&#8217;s in the release</span>
  <a class="heading-anchor" href="#whats-in-the-release" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a>
</h2>
<p>Two artifacts are published on Hugging Face under release
<code>civilytics-crdc-arrests-2025.1</code>:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><code>summary.duckdb</code></strong> (~260 MB) — a compact DuckDB with the tables that power the
live API: <code>arrest_summary</code> (LEA grain, ~2.27M rows), <code>state_summary</code>,
<code>district_dim</code> (names + geography), and a <code>meta</code> table. This is the file to grab
if you want point estimates and intervals.</li>
<li><strong><code>parquet/</code></strong> — the full raw posterior draws (500 per group), Hive-partitioned
by <code>model_id / YEAR / LEA_STATE</code> across ~1,387 shards. Reach for this if you need
to propagate uncertainty through your own downstream computation.</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="quick-start">
  <span class="heading-mark">Quick start</span>
  <a class="heading-anchor" href="#quick-start" aria-label="Link to this section">#</a>
</h2>
<p>You can query a single slice straight from Hugging Face with DuckDB — no full
download required:</p>
<figure class="code-block" data-lang="sql"><div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-sql" data-lang="sql"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">INSTALL</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">httpfs</span><span class="p">;</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="k">LOAD</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">httpfs</span><span class="p">;</span><span class="w">
</span></span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="w">
</span></span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="c1">-- Raw draws for TX, Black males, default model, 2021-22:
</span></span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="k">SELECT</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">*</span><span class="w">
</span></span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="k">FROM</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">read_parquet</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="w">
</span></span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="w">  </span><span class="s1">&#39;hf://datasets/civilytics/crdc-school-arrest-rates/parquet/model_id=nat_m2_mod/YEAR=21-22/LEA_STATE=TX/*.parquet&#39;</span><span class="w">
</span></span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="p">)</span><span class="w">
</span></span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="k">WHERE</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">RACE</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="s1">&#39;BL&#39;</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="k">AND</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="n">SEX</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="o">=</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="s1">&#39;M&#39;</span><span class="w">
</span></span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="k">LIMIT</span><span class="w"> </span><span class="mi">20</span><span class="p">;</span></span></span></code></pre></div>
</figure>
<p>A <strong>live API</strong> serves the summary estimates at
<a href="https://crdc-api.civilytics.org">crdc-api.civilytics.org</a>
 (OpenAPI/Swagger at
<code>/api/v1/__docs__/</code>), and the full methodology and data dictionary are documented
at <a href="https://pages.civilytics.org/crdc-arrests">pages.civilytics.org/crdc-arrests</a>
.</p>
]]></content><posse:post format="json">
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  "og_title": "CRDC School Arrest Rates — Bayesian Estimates"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>RETRACTED ARTICLE: The effect of ChatGPT on students’ learning performance, learning perception, and higher-order thinking: insights from a meta-analysis - Humanities and Social Sciences Communications</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-01-193205/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-01-193205/</id><published>2026-06-01T19:32:05Z</published><updated>2026-06-01T19:32:05Z</updated><category term="ai"/><category term="education"/><summary>It’s important to remember that the most popular and accessed article about ChatGPT and student learning was retracted. The thing is, retraction is just a label, and people can choose to honor or not honor that label. So keep your eyes out for people citing the study.</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>It&amp;#8217;s important to remember that the most popular and accessed article about ChatGPT and student learning was retracted. The thing is, retraction is just a label, and people can choose to honor or not honor that label. So keep your eyes out for people citing the study.&lt;/p>
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  "og_title": "RETRACTED ARTICLE: The effect of ChatGPT on students’ learning performance, learning perception, and higher-order thinking: insights from a meta-analysis - Humanities and Social Sciences Communications"
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>One approach to the age-period-cohort problem: Just don’t.</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-01-184154/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-01-184154/</id><published>2026-06-01T18:41:54Z</published><updated>2026-06-01T18:41:54Z</updated><category term="socialscience"/><category term="quantmethods"/><summary>When I was in grad-school it was trendy to call these FUQs - fundamentally unidentifiable (or unanswerable) questions. This is a much more nuanced, engaging, and useful take on how to approach a problem where your variables of interest can’t be varied.</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>When I was in grad-school it was trendy to call these FUQs - fundamentally unidentifiable (or unanswerable) questions. This is a much more nuanced, engaging, and useful take on how to approach a problem where your variables of interest can&amp;#8217;t be varied.&lt;/p>
</content><posse:post format="json">
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  "og_description": "When I was in grad-school it was trendy to call these FUQs - fundamentally unidentifiable (or unanswerable) questions. This is a much more nuanced, engaging, and useful take on how to approach a problem where your variables of interest can’t be varied.",
  "og_image": "https://jaredknowles.com/og/default.png",
  "og_title": "One approach to the age-period-cohort problem: Just don’t."
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</posse:post></entry><entry><title>Taking action against AI harms - Anil Dash</title><link href="https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-01-183930/" rel="alternate" type="text/html"/><id>https://jaredknowles.com/links/2026-06-01-183930/</id><published>2026-06-01T18:39:30Z</published><updated>2026-06-01T18:39:30Z</updated><category term="tech"/><category term="ai"/><summary>Anil Dash is one of my favorite writers about technology. And this is why you will no longer see any Civilytics or Jared Knowles content on Twitter/X - I deleted all our posts after reading this article.</summary><content type="html">&lt;p>Anil Dash is one of my favorite writers about technology. And this is why you will no longer see any Civilytics or Jared Knowles content on Twitter/X - I deleted all our posts after reading this article.&lt;/p>
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  "og_description": "Anil Dash is one of my favorite writers about technology. And this is why you will no longer see any Civilytics or Jared Knowles content on Twitter/X - I deleted all our posts after reading this article.",
  "og_image": "https://jaredknowles.com/og/default.png",
  "og_title": "Taking action against AI harms - Anil Dash"
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